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Carnival tops Q3 forecasts, full-year outlook holds but Q4 down on storms, fuel

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Carnival Corp. & plc grew third quarter adjusted earnings per share by 20%, to a record $2.29, higher than expectations. Though the company's Q4 guidance is lower than Wall Street's forecast on hurricane-related voyage disruptions, fuel and currency, Carnival raised the lower end of its full-year guidance on strong bookings.

Carnival expects to earn 44 cents to 50 cents per share in Q4, compared to the consensus forecast of 63 cents, while adjusted EPS goes to a range of $3.64 to $3.70, up from $3.60 to $3.70 previously.

Q3 adjusted net income was $1.7bn, or $2.29 per share, up from $1.4bn, or $1.92 per share a year ago. Wall Street had expected $2.20. US GAAP net income was $1.3bn, or $1.83 EPS, compared to $1.4bn, or $1.93 EPS, a year ago.

Adjusted net income excludes unrealized gains on fuel derivatives of $65m and impairments and other net charges of $395m for recent quarter and net gains of $7m for Q3 2016.

Revenues of $5.5bn were up from the $5.1bn a year ago.

'We delivered another consecutive quarter of strong operational improvement and another third quarter adjusted earnings record. Our ongoing efforts to create demand well in excess of measured supply growth helped to drive 5% higher cruise ticket pricing,' Carnival Corp. president and CEO Arnold Donald said.

Net revenue yields in constant currency increased 5.1%, better than June guidance of up approximately 4%. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day increased 0.2%, in line with June guidance of approximately flat.

Changes in fuel prices, including realized fuel derivatives, and currency exchange rates decreased earnings by 3 cents per share.

Noncash impairment charges for ships, trademark and goodwill of $392m were driven by the company's decision to strategically realign its business in Australia. Donald said Australia performs well, and that goes for P&O Cruises Australia, but the brand has higher operating costs due to its older ships.

The Carnival Corp. CEO expressed sympathy to those affected by earthquakes in Mexico and a very challenging series of hurricanes, and noted the company is actively contributing to recovery efforts in the Caribbean and the southern US through monetary and other support.

Carnival's owned destinations including Amber Cove, Dominican Republic; Puerta Maya in Cozumel, Mexico; Mahogany Bay, Honduras; Half Moon Cay and Princess Cays, Bahamas, as well as more than 40 other ports, plus all those in Mexico, are fully operational and welcoming passengers, he said.

'The Caribbean is open for business and going strong,' Donald told analysts Tuesday.

Several temporary port closures associated with the storms led to voyage disruptions that are expected to shave an estimated 10 cents to 12 cents per share from Q4. The company has resumed normal operations, with some itinerary modifications.

Carnival said cumulative bookings for the first half of next year are well ahead of the prior year on both price and occupancy. Since June, booking volumes for the first half of next year have been running ahead of last year at prices that are well ahead.

'Our record results, coupled with strong booking trends, have more than offset the anticipated earnings impact from these weather disruptions, enabling us to raise the mid-point of our guidance and positioning us to achieve the higher end of our previous earnings guidance range,' Donald said.

Full-year net revenue yields in constant currency are projected to be up approximately 4% compared to 2016, better than June guidance of up approximately 3.5%. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency are estimated to be up approximately 2.5%, versus June guidance of up approximately 1.5%.

The cumulative impact of the recent weather-related voyage disruptions reduced forecasted full year net revenue yields by 0.4% and increased full year net cruise cost guidance by 0.3%.

Changes in fuel prices, including realized fuel derivatives, and currency exchange rates are expected to decrease earnings by 33 cents per share. Carnival Corp.'s newly forecasted adjusted EPS in the range of $3.64 to $3.70 compares to June guidance of $3.60 to $3.70 and 2016 adjusted EPS of $3.45. Wall Street had been estimating $3.73.