The restriction prompted cruise lines to modify itineraries with calls at South Korea—approximately 40% of all China cruises, according to Wells Fargo—and seek alternative ports in Japan or add sea days,
The result was net yield growth turning negative.
'We believe the path to a resolution is a positive for China/Asia 2018 net cruise yields providing a likely upside surprise to global yields given approximately 5-10% lower 2018 China industry capacity,' Wells Fargo analyst Tim Conder said in the note.
The brokerage put 2017/2018 China capacity as a percent of global operator capacity at 6%/5% for Carnival Corp. & plc, 4%/8% for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and 10%/7% for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
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