Travel outpaced global economic growth
UNWTO estimates worldwide international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) increased 6% to 1.4bn in 2018, well above the 3.7% growth registered in the global economy.
In relative terms, the Middle East (+10%), Africa (+7%), Asia and the Pacific and Europe (both +6%) led growth in 2018. Arrivals to the Americas were below the world average (+3%).
Stronger economic growth, more affordable air travel, technological changes, new businesses models and greater visa facilitation around the word have accelerated growth in recent years.
Southern Europe stronger than Northern Europe
International tourist arrivals in Europe reached 713m in 2018, a notable 6% increase over an exceptionally strong 2017. Growth was driven by Southern and Mediterranean Europe (+7%), Central and Eastern Europe (+6%) and Western Europe (+6%). Results in Northern Europe were flat due to the weakness of arrivals to the United Kingdom.
Asia and the Pacific (+6%) recorded 343m international tourist arrivals in 2018. Arrivals in Southeast Asia grew 7%, followed by Northeast Asia (+6%) and South Asia (+5%). Oceania showed more moderate growth at +3%.
Declines in Central America, Caribbean
The Americas (+3%) welcomed 217m international arrivals in 2018, with mixed results across destinations. Growth was led by North America (+4%), and followed by South America (+3%), while Central America and the Caribbean (both -2%) reached very mixed results, the latter reflecting the impact of the September 2017 hurricanes Irma and Maria.
Data from Africa points to a 7% increase in 2018 (North Africa at +10% and Sub-Saharan +6%), reaching an estimated 67m arrivals.
The Middle East (+10%) showed solid results last year consolidating its 2017 recovery, with international tourist arrivals reaching 64m.
Growth seen to return to historical trends in 2019
Based on current trends, economic prospects and the UNWTO Confidence Index, UNWTO forecasts international arrivals to grow 3% to 4% next year, more in line with historic growth trends.
As a general backdrop, the stability of fuel prices tends to translate into affordable air travel while air connectivity continues to improve in many destinations, facilitating the diversification of source markets. Trends also show strong outbound travel from emerging markets, especially India and Russia but also from smaller Asian and Arab source markets.
Economic slowdown, Brexit, geopolitical factors
At the same time, the global economic slowdown, the uncertainty related to Brexit, and geopolitical and trade tensions may prompt a 'wait and see' attitude among investors and travelers.
Overall, 2019 is expected to see the consolidation among consumers of emerging trends such as the quest for ‘travel to change and to show,' ‘the pursuit of healthy options’ such as walking, wellness and sports tourism, ‘multigenerational travel’ as a result of demographic changes and more responsible travel.
“Digitalization, new business models, more affordable travel and societal changes are expected to continue shaping our sector, so both destination and companies need to adapt if they want to remain competitive,' UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said.
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