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Royal Caribbean wraps 'stellar' 2018, sees strong start to wave

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Update: RCL closed at $120.98, a gain of 8%. Royal Caribbean shares shot up 6% in early trading Wednesday as the company beat profit expectations for the fourth quarter of 2018 and said its booked position is better than at this time a year ago, at higher rates. $1.53/share adjusted profit

Q4 adjusted net income was $322.1m, or $1.53 per share, surpassing guidance of $1.45 to $1.50 and Wall Street's $1.51 forecast. US GAAP net income was $315.7m, or $1.50 per share.

Revenues reached $2.3bn, up from $2bn in Q4 2017.

Record profit

For full year 2018, adjusted net income was $1.9bn, or $8.86 per share, while US GAAP net icome was $1.8bn, or $8.56 per share, versus 2017's $1.6bn, or $7.53 per share. Currency and fuel cost 58 cents per share more than projected in the January 2018 guidance.

2018 revenues climbed to $9.5bn, up from just under $8.8bn in 2017.

'By any measure, 2018 was a particularly stellar year, and the strong wave makes us optimistic about 2019, as well,' RCL chairman and CEO Richard Fain said. The record financial results were achieved while introducing four new ships, acquiring Silversea Cruises, inaugurating two cruise terminals (Terminal A at PortMiami and Terminal 25 at Port Everglades) and implementing Excalibur mobile technology across about half the fleet.

Strong start to wave season

Full year EPS is projected in a range of $9.75 to $10, compared to Wall Street's $9.95 forecast.

Wave season has started on a strong note and RCL's overall booked position for 2019 is better than last year's record high and at higher rates. Demand for the company's main products is strong across all quarters.

'We received more bookings during the first week of wave than we have in any other week in our history—except for the second week of wave, which was even better,' Fain said.

Net yield is expected to increase in the range of a whopping 6.5% to 8.5% in constant currency and 6% to 8% as reported. Included are approximately 350 basis points from Silversea, the new PortMiami terminal and the Perfect Day at CocoCay experience which is expected to 'really shake up the short cruise market,' as Fain put it.

Net cruise costs excluding fuel per available passenger cruise day are expected to increase 8.5% to 9% in constant currency and 8.25% to 8.75% as reported. Included are about 650 basis points from Silversea's operations, the Miami terminal and the Perfect Day development.

'Our yield outlook for 2019 is very encouraging,' CFO Jason Liberty said. 'Demand for our brands continues to accelerate and we are well-positioned for another year of double-digit growth in our earnings per share.'

The company expects new ships Celebrity Flora, set to enter Galápagos service in May, and Spectrum of the Seas, arriving in June for the China market, to be contributors to yield growth.

First quarter guidance

First quarter earnings are expected to be approximately $1.10 per share, 2 cents higher than Wall Street's projection.

Silversea results will be accounted for on a one-quarter lag, so its traditionally weaker Q4 will be included in RCL's Q1 results.