Seatrade Cruise News is part of the Informa Markets Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.

Slightly stronger Atlantic hurricane season now forecast

80adce998a5fdcca926a87273a7c4e42_XL
The current Atlantic hurricane season is now expected to be the most active since 2012, with forecasters seeing a 70% chance of 12 to 17 named storms.

This gives a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to less than 15% from the initial outlook issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May.

Five to eight of the named storms are expected to become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.

NOAA's initial outlook called for 10 to 16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes.

The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

'We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,' said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

'However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active,' he added.

Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season, Bell said.

To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).