Views on Omicron's impact from William Blair and Cruise Critic research

In William Blair's latest research, travel was among the categories showing the most sequential weakening since early November, while plans to cruise were mixed.

The brokerage's 'Consumer Pulse' surveys 500 people on their plans and attitudes about a number of activities.

Regional split

By region, trends were split, with rising worry in about half of regions (led by New England, the Southeast and South Central), with the New England region now the most worried and the Upper Central remaining least worried.

The brokerage's survey found consumer activity eased from pandemic-era highs but well above year-ago levels. Despite little change in worry, more than 75% of reported activities decelerated sequentially from survey highs in early November, essentially returning to October levels and likely in part reflecting consumers shopping early for the holidays given supply chain constraints.

Aggregate plans for the next month decelerated for about 70% of categories, with rising categories led by going to movie theaters, buying cars and going to theme parks, while travel, in-person events and in-store apparel purchases posted the greatest sequential weakening.

Plans to take a cruise in the next month edged up 0.2% from early November but cruise plans for the next three months declined from 4.4% in early November to 3.1% in early December. Plans to cruise in the next six months went from 5.2% to 4.5%. But plans to cruise in the next 12 months rose from 8.4% in early November to 10.4% in early December.

Some 74.2% of respondents said they do not plan to cruise in the next year, slightly  up from 73.6% in early November.

Omicron 'top of mind' for Cruise Critic users

Meanwhile, Cruise Critic's weekly report ending Dec. 16 found that Omicron is top of mind for the site's users but isn't discouraging them from booking.

Research around COVID procedures and protocols is up, and Cruise Critic forums have hot-topic threads around what happens when someone on board is taken ill.

'Cruisers aren’t dissuaded from cruising because of Omicron, but they want to be assured that they’ll be able to sail and know what to expect on board. We went through a period of fatigue around this type of content, but it’s re-emerged as vital for our readers,' Cruise Critic Editor-in-Chief Colleen McDaniel said.

'From a sales perspective, Omicron also has affected booking, leading to a slower start to December. This aligns with typical seasonality as well, but we are seeing a glimmer of stronger bookings over the past few days (compared to the previous 10 days).'

Cruiser sentiment survey

Between November and December Cruise Critic saw slight signs of uncertainty creeping back in when the surveyed audience was asked about booking future cruises. In the US, 63% of respondents said, 'Yes, I’m already looking to book a future cruise,' down 3% from November. Those answering, 'I am unsure whether I will book a future cruise' (15%) is up 3% from November.

In the UK, the shift is even greater with just 49% of respondents saying they are already looking to book a future cruise, down from 60% in November. And instead of shifting to uncertainty, more people are saying they will book when restrictions and warnings ease (34%, up from 24% in November), signaling that the Omicron variant could be having a greater impact abroad.

Of those reconsidering their cruise plans (a small percentage, 7% of all respondents), the reasons are changing. More people are worried about being quarantined on board (49%, up from 44% last month), worried about contracting COVID-19 (49%, up from 35% in November) and worried about the destination they would be traveling to (42%, up from 24% a month ago).