Carnival's Q4 outperforms on ticket pricing, onboard spend, cost controlsCarnival's Q4 outperforms on ticket pricing, onboard spend, cost controls

Carnival Corp. & plc sailed past fourth quarter expectations, swinging to a profit and chalking up record revenues, while full year revenues hit $25b, also a new high.

CEO Josh Weinstein called it an 'incredibly strong finish,' and with hefty advance bookings at higher prices, 2025 is shaping up to be 'another banner year.'

CCL shares were trading 5% higher at midday.

Fourth quarter

The quarter's adjusted net income of $186m, or 14 cents per share, topped Wall Street's 7-cent consensus and outperformed September guidance by $126m, driven by higher ticket prices, higher onboard spending and improved costs. US GAAP net income was $303m, or 23 cents per share, versus a net loss of $48m in 2023.

$5.9b revenues

$5.9 billion in revenues, in line with Wall Street expectations, exceeded 2023 levels by 10%

Record net yields, in constant currency, rose 6.7% over 2023 and were better than September guidance, with both ticket prices and onboard spending up.

Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day increased 7.4%, in constant currency, compared to 2023 and were better than September guidance.

Record customer deposits

Total customer deposits reached a Q4 record of $6.8b (as of Nov. 30), higher than the previous $6.4b peak.

Even with less inventory available, booking volumes in the quarter for 2025 were higher, despite the traditionally slower period around the US elections.

'Incredibly strong finish'

'This has been an incredibly strong finish to a record year,' Weinstein said. 'Revenues hit an all-time high driven by a strong demand environment that we elevated throughout the year, enabling us to outperform our initial 2024 guidance by $700 million and deliver nearly $2 billion more to the bottom line, year over year.'

He continued: 'The progress was broad based as we drove strong pricing in 2024 as compared to 2023 across our major cruise lines and trades.'

Full year revenues hit $25b high

Full year net income and adjusted net income of $1.9b outperformed September guidance by more than $130m, on revenues hitting an all time high of $25b, over 15% higher than the prior year.

Other high marks included record full year adjusted EBITDA of $6.1b, 40% above the prior year, while the $3.6b in operating income, more than 80% higher than the prior year, was also a record.

11% ROIC

Adjusted return on invested capital was 11% — 'comfortably above' capital cost, as Weinstein put it.

Banner 2025 forecast

'2025 is shaping up to be another banner year, with yield growth expected to far outpace historical growth rates and again exceed unit cost growth,' Weinstein said, crediting the efforts of team members who have 'delivered a step-change improvement in 2024 which sets us up for a fantastic 2025 and beyond, while delivering unforgettable happiness to over 13.5 million guests last year.'

The cumulative advanced booked position for 2025 is at an all-time high in both price (constant currency) and occupancy.

Adjusted EBITDA per ALBD for 2025 is expected to be the highest in almost two decades, achieving the company's 2026 SEA Change target one year in advance.

Carnival forecasts net yields, in constant currency, approximately 4.2% higher than record 2024 levels, while adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (constant currency) are projected to increase approximately 3.7% year over year, in part due to higher dry dock days — 687, higher advertising expense and operating costs for new destination Celebration Key.

Adjusted net income of approximately $2.3b, over 20% higher than 2024, is forecast.

2026 bookings

Weinstein said 2026 sales are also looking strong.

2025 EPS guidance

The company expects Q1 adjusted earnings per share at approximately zero, compared to the Wall Street consensus of a 2-cent loss. 2025 adjusted EPS is estimated at approximately $1.70, 3 cents under the consensus.

Working toward investment grade

'We are laser-focused on continuing our efforts to further reduce interest expense and rebuilding an investment grade balance sheet. Just this year, we achieved a 4.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, nearly a two and a half turn improvement from 2023, positioning us three-fourths of the way to our initial leverage target,' CFO David Bernstein said.

In under two years, the company paid down more than $8b off its peak debt and is on track to return to investment grade in 2026. 

See also 'Carnival's Weinstein: Mexico cruise fee "not a done deal"'