Pricing was softer in June, UBS says, and Q4 looks better than Q3

Overall pricing was softer sequentially during June, UBS analyst Robin Farley said.

The fourth quarter is looking better than Q3 in terms of sequential week-over-week pricing, the brokerage told investors, while 2015 pricing has been stable following a couple weeks of discounting in the first half of May to build a base of business.

UBS price checks found that cumulatively, over the past four weeks, Costa is down the most, followed by Carnival Cruise Lines and Princess, as well as Holland America, all down 100 to 160 basis points cumulatively.

Celebrity is up the most, followed by Norwegian and Cunard—all have positive data points over the period. Royal Caribbean is flattish cumulatively in week over week pricing.

The brokerage said pricing for Bahamas and Canada/New England cruises was soft in June compared to the Caribbean, which continued its sequential pricing decrease in all of June but is down less than Bahamas and Canada/New England rates.

Alaska pricing has been stable/flattish to slightly down but better than the Caribbean or western and eastern Mediterranean over the past four weeks.

UBS price checks are based on the average fares of more than 8,000 sailings for the six largest North American lines and two of Europe's largest lines.