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William Blair sees 25%-50% of Carnival Corp. fleet sailing in first half 2021

Brokerage William Blair projects limited sailings for Carnival Corp. & plc in the fiscal fourth quarter, with a doubling of this year's sailings in 2021.

In a note, analyst Sharon Zackia assumed a phased reentry for 2021, yielding about two-thirds of normal ship sailings, 25% to 50% in the first half followed by nearly full operations in the second half.

Murky visibility

However, she cautioned, 'Visibility remains murky on the timing of a resumption of full operations, which could translate into downward pressure on our below-consensus 2021 projections.'

For 2020, William Blair updated its adjusted earnings per share forecast for CCL to a loss of $7.45, greater than its expectation of a $7.14/share loss earlier and Wall Street's consensus expectation of a $7.06/share loss.

In addition, the brokerage now expects CCL to lose $4.99 per share in 2021, wider than the consensus forecast for a loss of $2.96/share.

William Blair reiterated its 'market perform' (hold) rating for Carnival, which today signaled a third-quarter adjusted net loss of $1.7bn. That's an implied EPS loss of about $2.25, roughly in line with Street expectations.

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