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Carnival tops Q4 profit forecasts but fuel, currency eat into 2017 outlook

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Higher ticket prices on close-in bookings, particularly for Caribbean cruises, and on-board spending pushed Carnival Corp. & plc's fourth quarter above expectations. While 2017 bookings and pricing are well ahead, fuel costs and currency put the company's guidance below Wall Street's forecast.

Q4 adjusted net income (excluding unrealized gains and losses on fuel derivatives and other items) was $491m, or 67 cents per share, above Wall Street's 58-cent expectation and the $389m, or 50 cents per share, a year ago.

Net revenue yield increased 4.1% in constant currency, better than the company's September guidance of up approximately 3%. Net cruise costs excluding fuel increased 1%, in line with guidance of up approximately 1%.

US GAAP net income was $609m, or 83 cents diluted EPS, up from $270m, or 35 cents diluted EPS.

Full year adjusted net income was $2.6bn, or $3.45 adjusted EPS, higher than the consensus forecast of $3.36 and above 2015's adjusted net income of $2.1bn, or $2.70 adjusted EPS. Unrealized gains and losses on fuel derivatives and other items totaled $199m in gains for 2016 and $349m in losses for 2015.

2016 revenues were $16.4bn, up from 2015's $15.7bn.

Changes in fuel prices, including realized fuel derivative losses, and currency exchange rates cost the company 4 cents per share versus 2015.

'We achieved the most profitable year in our company's history as well as record fourth quarter earnings. The continued execution of our core strategy to drive consumer demand in excess of measured capacity growth, contain costs and leverage our industry-leading scale resulted in our third consecutive year of significantly higher earnings and return on invested capital,' president and ceo Arnold Donald said.

The delivery of more than $5bn in cash from operations to shareholders enabled increased dividend distributions, reaching $1bn, and more than $2.3bn in CCL stock repurchases.

Carnival said cumulative advance bookings for the first three quarters of 2017 are currently well ahead of the prior year at considerably higher prices. Alaska is looking particularly strong. Since September, both booking volumes and prices for the first three quarters of 2017 have been running well ahead of the prior year.

Based on current booking trends, the company expects full year 2017 net revenue yields in constant currency to be up approximately 2.5% compared to 2016. Net cruise costs excluding fuel in constant currency are projected to rise approximately 1%.

Fuel costs are forecast to increase approximately $200m compared to 2016, reducing 2017 earnings by 27 cents per share. In addition, unfavorable movements in currency exchange rates are forecast to cost 16 cents per share.

Carnival projects full year 2017 adjusted earnings per share in the range of $3.30 to $3.60, compared to Wall Street's $3.69 consensus and 2016 adjusted earnings per share of $3.45.

Q1 adjusted EPS is forecast in a range of 31 cents to 35 cents, compared to Wall Street's 41-cent expectation and 2016's Q1 adjusted EPS of 39 cents.