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Strong Caribbean growth projected following better than expected 2018

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CTO’s director of research Ryan Skeete said cruise arrivals are expected to increase 4% to 5% PHOTO: Caribbean Tourism Organization
The Caribbean tourism sector is poised to record strong growth in 2019 on the heels of a better than expected performance last year.

The Caribbean Tourism Organization is forecasting 6% to 7% growth this year, continuing an upward trend that began last September.

Cruise arrivals forecast to rise 4% to 5%

The growth is projected as 'damaged infrastructure in the hurricane-impacted destinations returns to capacity. Similarly, cruise arrivals should expand by a further four percent to five percent,' said CTO's Ryan Skeete, acting director of research.

Skeete did caution of possible 'significant headwinds to navigate,' including the outcome of the Brexit negotiations in the UK, the on-going trade war between the United States and China and potential extreme weather events in the destinations and marketplaces.

Still, he said, with global demand for international travel expected to remain strong, underpinned by healthy economic activity, and with improved air connectivity helping to boost arrivals, the outlook for Caribbean tourism in 2019 is cautiously optimistic.

2018 year-end bump

The CTO research director revealed that a robust 9.8% growth during the September to December period last year led to a stronger than projected performance. It was a significant turnaround from the previous eight months of decline.

'Even the destinations that were severely impacted by the 2017 hurricanes, despite registering overall double-digit declines last year, experienced a significant turnaround during the last four months, registering triple-digit increases during this period,' Skeete said during a news briefing.

The 29.9m tourist visits in 2018 represented the second highest number of visitors to the Caribbean on record, surpassed only by the 30.6m who visited in 2017. And while this represented a 2.3% decline overall, it was better that the anticipated 3% to 4% fall-off.

'With a strong performance during the last four months of 2018, including a robust showing by countries impacted by the 2017 hurricanes, the evidence suggests that Caribbean tourism is on the upswing,' Skeete said.

Canada leads, US lags

According to information compiled from CTO member countries, Canada was the strongest performing market; its 3.9m visits represented a 5.7% rise. The intra-Caribbean market had its best performance ever, reaching 2m visitors, while South America produced 1.9m tourist visits, a 3.6% increase. Arrivals from Europe grew by a modest 1.3%, with UK arrivals remaining flat at an estimated 1.3m.

However, the United States, which remains the region’s leading market, was down, with the 13.9m American tourist visits representing a 6.3% drop. This was due mainly to steep declines in arrivals to popular destinations impacted by the hurricanes, such as Puerto Rico, where numbers were down by 45.6%, and St. Maarten, which fell by 79%.

Signs of US turnaround

However, a healthy 28% rise in US arrivals during the fourth quarter showed the strong turnaround during this period.