April 13 updates: Carnival cancels more cruises, Wells Fargo expects further lines/countries to defer export credit-backed debt

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Further Carnival Cruise Line cancellations

Carnival Cruise Line canceled all sailings through June 26, and all Carnival Sunrise sailings through Oct. 19. These are on top of earlier additional longer-term cancellations.

In addition to a full refund, the line offered two options to travelers who were booked on these voyages and canceled on or after March 6. For sailings of six days and longer, the offer is a 100% future cruise credit and $600 on-board credit per stateroom. For cruises of five or fewer days, the offer is a 100% future cruise credit plus $300 on-board credit per stateroom.

In both cases, the future cruise must be booked by Dec. 31, 2020 for a sailing departing by Dec. 31, 2022.

More export credit loan deferrals, delivery delays

With Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. gaining additional liquidity thanks to a deferral of German-backed export credit loans for three ships, Wells Fargo Securities expects additional deferrals could be forthcoming for more ships and operators, and from Italy.

The brokerage also expects cruise newbuild delivery schedules will be delayed beyond the approximately three months assumed from current production halts at shipyards.

'In our view, this should be sufficient to carry the operators through the end of CY2020 under a “2020 no sail” scenario, with the exception of [Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings] potentially raising some near-term financing,' Wells Fargo analyst Tim Conder said in a note. However, the US extension of its no sail order 'highlights the importance of operators utilizing their fleets in second half 2020 to lessen even higher utilization needed in 2021 to meet cash flow requirements, including initial payment of 2020 loan deferrals,' Conder added.

RCL seeks debt holiday for six more German-built ships

According to Wells Fargo, RCL is looking to incorporate the deferral for remaining Hermes-backed loans for Quantum and Ovation of the Seas and Celebrity Equinox, Eclipse, Silhouette and Solstice, generating an additional $320m of liquidity.

The brokerage expects Carnival Corp. and NCLH will take advantage of similar loan deferrals from other countries.