Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now under way.
Odds rise to 45% from 30%
Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45%, up from 30% from the outlook issued in May. The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35%, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%.
The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA now expecting 10 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which five to nine will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including two to four major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The role of El Niño
NOAA noted the current El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has ended and neutral conditions have returned.
'El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead,' said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 'This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year.'
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